Aspen Elementary (17)/Interim Report

Interim Report
http://mode.lanl.k12.nm.us/get_interim1112.php?team_id=17

In this project we are going to model the effects of the Tasmanian Devil’s Facial Tumor Disease (DFTD) on the lifecycle and population. This disease is thought to be a transmissible cancer. [1] This disease causes the devils to die of starvation within six months of infection most of the time. [2] Because of the seriousness of the disease scientists are worried about the possible extinction of the devils [6, 7]. Since the mid-1990s, DFTD has reduced the population by 80%. [2] Scientist are capturing devils, are removing the sick devils and are hoping to repopulate the devil species later. [6] Scientist studied the Tasmanian devils and they found out that the devils have changed their breeding habit. Previously, females started breeding at the age of two, then annually for about three more years until dying normally [4]. Now they commonly breed at the age of one and then die of tumor disease shortly after. [7] Tasmanian devils are prey to the red fox [5] and many devils are killed by cars or illegal hunting. [6]

We are using the agent-based Star-Logo TNG program to model Devil Facial Tumor Disease (DFTD). We will model interactions between both the healthy and infected subpopulations. These interactions will be described by probability.

We expect to show through computer modeling that DFTD could cause the devils to become extinct due to the high infection rate. Then we will try new scenarios in our model to try to determine how to save the Tasmanian devil from devil’s facial tumor disease. We want our model to show how to save the devils. One idea is we can remove a number of devils that are not sick from the wild and let them repopulate in a zoo or something like that. Another idea is to exterminate all the sick devils and leave the not sick devils alone.

We first set up two different types of devils, white females and black males. Then we set up two different colors for infected devils and non-infected. The sick females are yellow and sick males are red. Then we set up random ages for the devils up to 8 years old. Devils are fully grown at two years of age, and few devils live longer than five years old in the wild. In captivity, they may live to 7- 8 years of age. [10][11][12] Ages 1-3 set size 1, and ages 4-6 set size 2 so, that the younger devils look smaller. We used a slider button to make the infectivity rate variable between 0-100 %. We also put in slider buttons to independently change the number of females and males we start with. We had the devils start with energy random 25 + 25. The energy will represent the health of the devils. We still need to add the reproductive rate of the devils with the disease and without the disease to the computer model. Devils usually mate in March, and the young are born in April (gestation is only 21 days.) Each baby devil is carried in the pouch for about 4 months. Although 4 young sometimes survive, the average number is 2 or 3. Young are weaned (not drinking mothers milk) at 5 or 6 months of age, and are thought to have left the mother and be living alone in the bush by late December (beginning of Australian summer). Males can produce up to 16 offspring over their lifetime, while females average four mating seasons and 12 offspring. Theoretically this means that a devil population can double every year.[10] We also need to show the interaction between all the devils. This will be modeled as collisions between devils. Some devils may have more immunity than other devils to DFTD. We may want to add a variability button for this as well. We hope to start generating data soon with our computer model.

Introduction
Hello Team 17! My name is Ruben Guadiana and I've been involved with the Supercomputing Challenge for about ten years. I started out in High School as a participant for two years and then helped with mentoring and judge through college and now that I've started my career. I currently work in Albuquerque for the US District Court as a Network Administrator.

Progress
I really like your project idea and think it will make a really great model. It looks like you've done quite a bit of online research, enough to get some numbers into your model and start simulating your ideas for re-population. So far your plan looks really great. I can't wait to see the program in action. It seems like you've thought of many scenarios and realistic situations but one thing I noticed that you should also talk about are any natural predators that the devils might encounter which would also affect the population.

Mentors
It's always a good idea to have mentors for the SC Challenge. Your report doesn't mention any mentors and I think this project would really benefit from some expert help. Try and find some mentors in your area, wildlife biologists might especially help your team out. If you can't find anyone take a look at the list at http://www.supercomputingchallenge.org/resources/mentors.shtml and see if you can find someone to help.

Model
Part of this evaluation focuses on your math model and actual source code. It certainly sounds like you've got some code running and I'd really love to see it. It's important to submit any and all of the work you've done on your project for evaluation and guidance at every opportunity throughout the competition.

Face to Face Evaluation
Later if February you've got another review coming up and it will be important to have actually source code to show to the judges. Work hard for the next few weeks to have as much as possible to present to the judges for the best feedback and direction as possible.

To better prepare you for the upcoming review I wanted to share with you the judging rubric which will be used at the final judging. Review it throughout your preparation to understand what the judges will be looking for. http://www.supercomputingchallenge.org/archive/05-06/expo/poster_session_rubric.html Presenting your project as if it were final in the upcoming interim review will better prepare you for the final judging in April. If you have any questions or comments please email me at rubane@gmail.com

Well done so far, I look forward to seeing your final product!