Artesia High (12)/Interim Report

Interim Report
http://mode.lanl.k12.nm.us/get_interim1112.php?team_id=12

Problem Statement
Artesia, a town in Southeastern New Mexico, is one of several towns in the region that has an economic foundation in the oil and gas industry. As such, trucks bearing hazardous materials are constantly traveling through these towns, and refineries are located in surrounding areas. This model will attempt to determine if the current emergency egress plan for Artesia [3.], will allow for the assumed safe evacuation of the population with few or no deaths, as opposed to significant deaths during the evacuation.

Planned Approach
Once enough information is collected, we will then create a model using [3.]. This model will be limited to airborne gases such as Hydrogen Fluoride. Human behavior will include personal space, damage and death, and rational and irrational movement behaviors. Wind speed and direction will be variable but kept within the normal ranges for Artesia. Population distribution will be variable, as it is in town. When the model seems to produce reasonable output data for the inputted parameters, it will be reviewed with emergency response personnel for validation; after validatation, a range of simulation experiments will be conducted.

Current Progress
Consultations with the local fire department have revealed that the refinery possesses a group of firemen on staff. The incidents to date are less severe than those we will be considering, and have been handled by this group. However, if a more severe accident should occur, the Artesia Fire Department and Police may be requested to aid. If circumstances necessitate, a hazardous material or “haz mat” team from a variety of agencies will be on standby. We have found the current number (~11,000) and locations of residents, and data regarding the general climate pattern for the city has been obtained. Since [3.] contains no actual evacuation plan our model will incorporate several alternatives, based upon information provided by the local fire and police departments.

Anticipated Outcome
The data set collected from the model will be used to determine the expected number of casualties of the populace of Artesia, NM could evacuate if a major disaster does present itself. Hopefully the evidence supports an answer that a mass evacuation under our modeled circumstances will result in a significant saving of lives. It is hoped that the model will produce results similar to those presented in [3].

Introduction
Hi,

My name is Drew Einhorn. See the biography on my User Page.

Progress
You have made significant progress from your proposal.

It's not clear whether you are just considering incidents at the refinery or transportation accidents involving trucks travelling to and from the refinery.

Mentors
If you do not yet have a mentor, please contact consult for help in finding a mentor to help you with this ambitious project.

Model
There are several distinct components to the model you need to build.


 * Where are the gasses? You could build you own simplified model.  Or you could follow the Wikipedia links to find the use a existing model that is much more complex and complete.
 * Where are the people? You can use census data on where people live for night time accidents, and employment data for where people work for day time accidents.
 * What routes do people choose to evacuate from the accident.

Face to Face Evaluation
Your next milestone is a |face to face evaluation in February.

Rubrics
The judges will use these rubrics to evaluate your projects. Use them as checklists for what you need to communicate to the judges.


 * Expo Judges Rubric
 * Finalist Judges Rubric

Good Luck!!
You are off to a good start, but you have a lot of work to do.