Los Alamos Mid School (80)

The Los Alamos Mid School team (#80) is from Los Alamos. This year (2011-2012) they've submitted a project titled Investigating Post Los Conchas Fire Erosion and Potential Control Methods.

Team Members:

 * Hayden Walker
 * Phillip Heikoop
 * GREYSON VENHAUS

Sponsoring Teacher:

 * Pauline Stephens

Proposal
http://mode.lanl.k12.nm.us/get_proposal1112.php?team_id=80

For the 2011-2012 New Mexico Supercomputing Challenge, our team proposes to investigate the impact of reforestation efforts of erosion caused by the recent Los Conchas fire in the Jemez Mountains. Our model would use data on post-Cerro Grande erosion as the basis for predicting Los Conchas Fire erosion. This model will be written in the Python programing language. The information gained by this model is important because the lack of vegetation in the burned regions drastically increases the amount of erosion. For example, after the Cerro Grande fire the Los Alamos Reservoir filled up with sentiment and was rendered unusable. The lack of vegetation also increases the severity of flash floods, because soil exposed to fire becomes hydrophobic. Revegitation will help make the soil more hydrophilic and less subject to erosion.

Interim Report
http://mode.lanl.k12.nm.us/get_interim1112.php?team_id=80

Problem
The recent Los Conchas Fire has severely impacted the ecological heath of the affected region by stimulating erosion. The heat of a fire changes the chemistry of the soil to make it hydrophobic, which decrease the soil's ability to absorb water. Since the soil cannot absorb the water, the water flows downhill and picks up the soil. The lack of vegetation in severely burned areas also increase erosion because the soil is no longer held together by the fibrous roots of the vegetation. Our problem is to model this erosion, along with erosion while selected control methods (reforestation, fiber rolls on sensitive slopes, etc).

Plan
A model will be constructed in the Java programing language to simulate erosion caused by the aftereffects of the fire. This model will use data from post Cerro Grande fire erosion to model the post Los Conchas fire erosion. The java program will include a number of user controlled variables such as the time range to simulate, the location of fire damage to simulate, and which erosion control methods are used. The program will have a GUI constructed with Java's built-in SWING interface API. The raw data output of the model will be able to be shown in numerous ways, such as as total erosion, cumulative erosion at a specified interval, such as one month, or as erosion added every interval. The data will also be optionally able to be saved in a plain text file for further graphing and or examination.

Progress to Date
A model written in Java has been coded that can simulate post Los Conchas erosion. The model can currently simulate erosion in selectable areas and periods of time, along with simulating various erosion control methods. The model is currently only able to output data as total erosion, and this data can be saved as a plain text file. The program's GUI is incomplete, namely lacking filed for the input of a time range to simulate. As such all user controlled variables are input through command line prompts. The program suffers from a lack of actual data on which to base it's outputs, currently the calculations are done using random logarithmic functions.

Hypothesis
We predict that erosion, since it diminishes its severity over time, will best be represented by a logarithmic function, as it best fits that type of line. We predict that the best erosion control method will be simple reforestation, as it helps hold the soil in place and changes the physical and chemical characteristics of the soil to make it more hydrophilic. The most impacted region judged in erosion per square meter we predict will be Los Alamos Canyon, because of it's steep slopes.

Introduction
Hello my name is Cesar E. Venegas I’m currently a senior at New Mexico Tech and I’m pursuing a degree in Petroleum Engineering. I will be graduating in May and I plan to begin working with in the oil industry as soon as I graduate. I chose Petroleum Engineering because there is a lot of opportunity to travel to world and experience different types of cultures. Also I feel it is important to gain a better understanding of Americans most important industry that affects every individual in this country.

Problem Statement
The problem statement clearly shows a focused path as at where the team is going with their project. The fact that the team has investigated every side of the problem proposed show that the team is well aware of their topic. In my opinion this is a very complex problem for a middle school team to approach. It will be interesting to see if the team's final project can produce a relevant solution.

[4/4]

Mathematical Method
As far as mathematical method goes there is not clear explanation of how you will approach this problem. Although your computational method is thoroughly though out you may want to go back and re-establish the numerical method as to why you choose the program you did.

[3/4]

Computational Method
Your plan to construct a program using Java at your level is very impressive. It seems that you have a clear understanding of how to use this program and should not have a problem translating your data into a program that you can extract useful data. The plan as far as programming goes is fairly clear and is very well thought out.

[4/4]

Results and Conclusions
As far as conclusion and results go the main thing that your group should focus on is just perfecting your program. The main questions that should be answered is will this information be useful and to whom will it be useful too?

[4/4]

Code
The team seems to display a proper understanding of how various programs work. The problem proposed is a very complex problem which requires very complex coding. As stated before the it is very impressive to see that your team is using such a complex programming method at your level.

[4/4]